Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Zibanejad 49.5% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 75.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 63.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 63.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
McDavid
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
McDavid
Zibanejad
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
4
McDavid
Zibanejad
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
50.1% (1,051)
+1.4%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
58.3% (120)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
41.9% (227)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Zibanejad is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,029).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zibanejad
Home
50.7% (513)
49.0% (681)
Away
53.2% (498)
49.9% (717)
By Period
McDavid
Zibanejad
P1
52.3%
49.9%
P2
51.6%
47.6%
P3
51.7%
51.1%
OT
100.0%
48.3%
Final 5 min
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 16:12 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:10 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 1 | 12:30 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 10:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 10:28 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 10:21 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 14:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 08:59 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 06:36 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |