Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Zibanejad 49.3% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 64.1%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 50.4%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 51.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
McDavid
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McDavid
Zibanejad
Last 5: McDavid 3-2 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
1
McDavid
Zibanejad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Zibanejad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Zibanejad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
50.9% (913)
+0.7%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
59.0% (39)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
37.5% (160)
-1.1%
On power play, Zibanejad has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Zibanejad is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zibanejad
Home
51.8% (415)
51.1% (536)
Away
50.4% (450)
47.6% (576)
By Period
McDavid
Zibanejad
P1
47.5%
50.1%
P2
51.6%
47.3%
P3
55.5%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
45.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 11:15 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 09:45 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 1 | 07:53 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 1 | 07:39 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |