Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Strome 44.6% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Strome leads 27-26 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 50.8%
Defensive zone
Strome 51.6%
Neutral zone
Strome 50.6%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
McDavid
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
27
(53 meetings)
26
27
McDavid
Strome
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
5
9
McDavid
Strome
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
11
8
McDavid
Strome
19 total
Neutral Zone
Even
10
10
McDavid
Strome
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
44.1% (6,839)
+3.6%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
49.3% (854)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
41.5% (410)
+1.9%
On even strength, McDavid has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Strome is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,726).
Home / Away
McDavid
Strome
Home
49.3% (4,570)
44.4% (4,046)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
44.7% (4,057)
By Period
McDavid
Strome
P1
46.5%
44.0%
P2
48.7%
45.3%
P3
48.3%
44.3%
OT
40.9%
46.3%
Final 5 min
50.1%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:23 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:15 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:57 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 00:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 11:23 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:38 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |