Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Strome 42.3% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 74.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 68.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 68.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 69.3%
69.3%
30.7%
McDavid
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
McDavid
Strome
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
1
2
McDavid
Strome
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
7
5
McDavid
Strome
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
2
McDavid
Strome
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
41.2% (1,040)
+6.5%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
43.0% (151)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
51.4% (35)
-29.2%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +29.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Strome is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (900).
Home / Away
McDavid
Strome
Home
47.3% (387)
40.1% (581)
Away
48.1% (389)
43.1% (645)
By Period
McDavid
Strome
P1
47.6%
41.4%
P2
50.0%
42.9%
P3
45.0%
40.5%
Final 5 min
46.8%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
41.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:23 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:15 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:57 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 00:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 11:23 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:38 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |