Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.6% vs 48.2%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Bennett shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Bennett 48.3% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bennett 58.8%
Defensive zone
Bennett 51.1%
Neutral zone
Bennett 51.6%
Result
Sam Bennett favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
McDavid
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
McDavid
Bennett
Last 7: McDavid 4-3 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
1
McDavid
Bennett
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Bennett
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
2
McDavid
Bennett
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
46.4% (780)
+1.1%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
57.3% (150)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
47.8% (46)
-1.3%
On power play, Bennett has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Bennett is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Home / Away
McDavid
Bennett
Home
50.2% (400)
50.3% (519)
Away
44.7% (365)
45.7% (457)
By Period
McDavid
Bennett
P1
47.5%
47.5%
P2
48.6%
46.6%
P3
46.7%
49.8%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 02:01 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:37 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |