Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Bennett shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Bennett 46.6% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bennett 50.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 54.9%
Neutral zone
Bennett 55.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
McDavid
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
McDavid
Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
1
McDavid
Bennett
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Bennett
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
46.5% (909)
+1.2%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
43.1% (51)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
38.5% (13)
-16.3%
On penalty kill, Bennett has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Bennett is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Home / Away
McDavid
Bennett
Home
47.3% (387)
45.4% (449)
Away
48.1% (389)
46.9% (524)
By Period
McDavid
Bennett
P1
47.6%
49.6%
P2
50.0%
43.7%
P3
45.0%
45.1%
Final 5 min
46.8%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 06:11 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 1 | 06:34 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |