Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 35.2% vs right-shot opponents — Lazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Lazar 49.0% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 73.8%
Defensive zone
McMichael 76.3%
Neutral zone
McMichael 75.9%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 74.3%
74.3%
25.7%
McMichael
Lazar
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McMichael
Lazar
Last 5: McMichael 1-4 Lazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
0
4
McMichael
Lazar
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Lazar
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Lazar
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
48.7% (302)
-5.3%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
44.4% (9)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
50.0% (54)
-19.2%
On penalty kill, Lazar has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lazar shoots right. McMichael is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (281).
McMichael shoots left. Lazar is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
McMichael
Lazar
Home
42.1% (444)
49.2% (189)
Away
42.8% (428)
48.3% (176)
By Period
McMichael
Lazar
P1
42.5%
50.8%
P2
41.9%
45.2%
P3
42.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.7%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:49 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:42 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 13:19 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |