Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 43.6% vs right-shot opponents — Lazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 48.3% vs Lazar 51.0% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 66.2%
Defensive zone
Lazar 74.5%
Neutral zone
Lazar 52.9%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
McMichael
Lazar
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McMichael
Lazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Lazar
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
0
1
McMichael
Lazar
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Lazar
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (71)
51.4% (356)
-7.7%
Power Play
52.4% (21)
62.5% (8)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
47.2% (36)
+5.7%
On power play, Lazar has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lazar shoots right. McMichael is 43.6% vs right-shot opponents (39).
McMichael shoots left. Lazar is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Home / Away
McMichael
Lazar
Home
42.6% (54)
49.7% (163)
Away
50.9% (55)
52.3% (237)
By Period
McMichael
Lazar
P1
42.9%
46.9%
P2
40.5%
53.3%
P3
57.1%
53.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
46.8%
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 08:58 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |