Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 41.8% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 44.5% vs Cozens 46.1% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 60.0%
Defensive zone
McMichael 57.2%
Neutral zone
McMichael 53.3%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
McMichael
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McMichael
Cozens
Last 9: McMichael 3-6 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
3
McMichael
Cozens
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
3
McMichael
Cozens
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (339)
45.6% (746)
-2.5%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
50.8% (65)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
34.5% (29)
-34.5%
On penalty kill, Cozens has a +34.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. McMichael is 41.8% vs right-shot opponents (122).
McMichael shoots left. Cozens is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
McMichael
Cozens
Home
42.7% (178)
43.9% (410)
Away
43.1% (167)
47.2% (430)
By Period
McMichael
Cozens
P1
40.7%
46.4%
P2
50.0%
41.6%
P3
36.9%
49.4%
Final 5 min
43.8%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 16:20 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 18:12 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 11:07 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 08:38 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 8, 2021 | 3 | 04:45 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 8, 2021 | 3 | 02:07 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 8, 2021 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 8, 2021 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 8, 2021 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |