Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). McMichael wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Staal 54.6% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 12-7 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 79.6%
Defensive zone
McMichael 83.4%
Neutral zone
McMichael 78.5%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
McMichael
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
12
(19 meetings)
7
12
McMichael
Staal
Last 10: McMichael 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
9
McMichael
Staal
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
5
3
McMichael
Staal
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
56.1% (955)
-13.7%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
66.9% (142)
-17.8%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
43.0% (242)
-2.4%
On power play, Staal has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
McMichael shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
McMichael
Staal
Home
43.0% (298)
55.4% (663)
Away
42.5% (252)
54.4% (676)
By Period
McMichael
Staal
P1
46.5%
55.1%
P2
41.1%
54.7%
P3
41.3%
53.9%
Final 5 min
44.0%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:51 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:29 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:59 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:59 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 16:50 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:56 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 11:28 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 10:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:30 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |