Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 43.5% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 44.5% vs Norris 51.0% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 58.6%
Defensive zone
Norris 65.6%
Neutral zone
Norris 73.5%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
McMichael
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
McMichael
Norris
Last 7: McMichael 4-3 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
0
1
McMichael
Norris
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
3
1
McMichael
Norris
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Norris
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (339)
51.2% (886)
-8.1%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
59.0% (83)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
38.8% (67)
-38.8%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +38.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. McMichael is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (223).
McMichael shoots left. Norris is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Home / Away
McMichael
Norris
Home
42.7% (178)
55.6% (487)
Away
43.1% (167)
47.0% (549)
By Period
McMichael
Norris
P1
40.7%
54.8%
P2
50.0%
51.3%
P3
36.9%
48.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 19:29 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 17:58 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 11:16 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 05:14 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:47 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 1 | 06:20 | Defensive | Josh Norris |