Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Foligno 52.0% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 65.0%
Defensive zone
McMichael 77.3%
Neutral zone
McMichael 71.7%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 71.2%
71.2%
28.8%
McMichael
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McMichael
Foligno
Last 7: McMichael 2-5 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
3
McMichael
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
1
McMichael
Foligno
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
McMichael
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
53.4% (249)
-10.0%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
53.2% (154)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
40.6% (32)
-9.8%
On power play, Foligno has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. McMichael is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (591).
McMichael shoots left. Foligno is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
McMichael
Foligno
Home
42.1% (444)
57.3% (225)
Away
42.8% (428)
47.1% (210)
By Period
McMichael
Foligno
P1
42.5%
53.0%
P2
41.9%
51.8%
P3
42.5%
52.6%
Final 5 min
39.7%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 14:16 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:30 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:19 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:04 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 05:50 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |