Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs McLeod 47.8% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 74.3%
Defensive zone
McMichael 71.0%
Neutral zone
McMichael 73.5%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 73.0%
73.0%
27.0%
McMichael
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
McMichael
McLeod
Last 10: McMichael 1-9 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
3
McMichael
McLeod
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
McMichael
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
4
McMichael
McLeod
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
49.2% (796)
-6.8%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
44.8% (87)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
43.3% (263)
-2.7%
On even strength, McLeod has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
McMichael shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
McMichael
McLeod
Home
43.0% (298)
49.2% (575)
Away
42.5% (252)
45.9% (571)
By Period
McMichael
McLeod
P1
46.5%
52.8%
P2
41.1%
45.1%
P3
41.3%
45.6%
Final 5 min
44.0%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:19 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 02:52 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 02:47 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:10 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 06:07 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |