Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Zary wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 47.1% vs Evans 55.4% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 95.2%
Defensive zone
Zary 75.4%
Neutral zone
Zary 80.9%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Zary
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Zary
Evans
Last 5: Zary 0-5 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Zary
Evans
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
3
Zary
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Zary
Evans
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (136)
56.2% (477)
-9.1%
Power Play
31.6% (19)
70.0% (10)
-38.4%
On power play, Evans has a +38.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Zary is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Zary shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Home / Away
Zary
Evans
Home
45.6% (79)
55.3% (374)
Away
44.7% (76)
57.1% (317)
By Period
Zary
Evans
P1
48.3%
58.5%
P2
46.3%
55.7%
P3
39.5%
53.9%
Final 5 min
47.1%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.2%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |