Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Zary wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 42.6% vs Evans 52.2% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 93.7%
Defensive zone
Zary 53.6%
Neutral zone
Zary 78.2%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Zary
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Zary
Evans
Last 6: Zary 1-5 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Zary
Evans
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
3
Zary
Evans
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Zary
Evans
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (447)
53.8% (3,695)
-12.0%
Power Play
36.2% (58)
60.0% (70)
-23.8%
On power play, Evans has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Zary is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Zary shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Home / Away
Zary
Evans
Home
41.3% (293)
53.4% (2,593)
Away
41.0% (212)
51.0% (2,394)
By Period
Zary
Evans
P1
40.4%
54.0%
P2
38.6%
50.9%
P3
45.2%
52.0%
OT
0.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
34.6%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
41.2%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Defensive | Connor Zary |