Scouting Report
Connor Zary holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Zary wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 46.9% vs Carlsson 37.1% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 77.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 79.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 79.6%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 78.8%
21.2%
78.8%
Zary
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Zary
Carlsson
Last 5: Zary 1-4 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
2
Zary
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Zary
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zary
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (106)
34.4% (535)
+10.9%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
42.9% (21)
-42.9%
On power play, Carlsson has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Zary is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (77).
Zary shoots left. Carlsson is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
Zary
Carlsson
Home
41.9% (62)
38.6% (254)
Away
46.8% (47)
31.6% (307)
By Period
Zary
Carlsson
P1
42.9%
35.9%
P2
42.5%
33.8%
P3
47.1%
34.3%
Final 5 min
16.7%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
44.0%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 07:01 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 03:25 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:45 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 15:03 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |