Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (41.2% vs 40.8%). Zary wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 42.6% vs Carlsson 41.2% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 53.9%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 65.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 62.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Zary
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Zary
Carlsson
Last 5: Zary 1-4 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
2
Zary
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Zary
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zary
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (447)
41.0% (1,844)
+0.8%
Power Play
36.2% (58)
42.9% (154)
-6.7%
On power play, Carlsson has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Zary is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Zary shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Home / Away
Zary
Carlsson
Home
41.3% (293)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
41.0% (212)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
Zary
Carlsson
P1
40.4%
43.3%
P2
38.6%
36.5%
P3
45.2%
43.2%
OT
0.0%
40.7%
Final 5 min
34.6%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
41.2%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 07:01 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 03:25 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:45 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 15:03 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |