Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +17.1% FO% edge overall. Zary wins 37.0% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 41.1% vs McCarron 54.0% (-17.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 86.1%
Defensive zone
McCarron 90.6%
Neutral zone
McCarron 54.0%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Zary
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Zary
McCarron
Last 8: Zary 4-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zary
2
0
Zary
McCarron
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
2
Zary
McCarron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Zary
McCarron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
36.6% (205)
54.2% (756)
-17.6%
Power Play
41.7% (36)
55.6% (9)
-13.9%
On even strength, McCarron has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Zary is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Zary shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Zary
McCarron
Home
38.8% (152)
54.6% (445)
Away
34.8% (89)
54.2% (478)
By Period
Zary
McCarron
P1
33.3%
53.6%
P2
31.7%
55.6%
P3
47.5%
53.7%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
32.7%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
37.3%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 09:45 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 04:27 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Connor Zary |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:20 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 10:06 | Offensive | Connor Zary |