Connor Zary vs Michael McCarron
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Zary wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 42.6% vs McCarron 52.7% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Zary 82.9%
Defensive zone
McCarron 87.3%
Neutral zone
McCarron 53.7%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Zary
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Zary
McCarron
Last 10: Zary 5-5 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zary
2
0
Zary
McCarron
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
3
Zary
McCarron
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Zary
McCarron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (447)
53.4% (2,901)
-11.6%
Power Play
36.2% (58)
45.3% (86)
-9.1%
On even strength, McCarron has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Zary is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Zary shoots left. McCarron is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,403).
Home / Away
Zary
McCarron
Home
41.3% (293)
52.3% (1,696)
Away
41.0% (212)
53.3% (1,754)
By Period
Zary
McCarron
P1
40.4%
53.9%
P2
38.6%
52.5%
P3
45.2%
52.0%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
34.6%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
41.2%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 11:49 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 09:45 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 04:27 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Connor Zary |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:20 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 10:06 | Offensive | Connor Zary |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Connor Zary |