Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.1% vs Stepan 53.4% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 60.9%
Defensive zone
Lazar 58.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 55.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Lazar
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lazar
Stepan
Last 5: Lazar 3-2 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
Stepan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
Stepan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Lazar
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (242)
55.3% (358)
-2.4%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
0.0% (3)
+100.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (27)
50.8% (61)
-17.5%
On power play, Lazar has a +100.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Lazar is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (70).
Lazar shoots right. Stepan is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Home / Away
Lazar
Stepan
Home
57.1% (119)
57.7% (213)
Away
47.1% (153)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Lazar
Stepan
P1
53.1%
56.3%
P2
52.2%
48.9%
P3
48.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
42.0%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.5%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2023 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 15, 2023 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 15, 2023 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 15, 2023 | 1 | 02:25 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 10:59 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |