Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Lazar wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.2% vs Stepan 46.6% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 75.2%
Defensive zone
Lazar 61.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 50.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Lazar
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Lazar
Stepan
Last 10: Lazar 5-5 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lazar
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
2
Lazar
Stepan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
Lazar
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (2,658)
46.5% (10,204)
+3.7%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
48.8% (1,593)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (415)
44.2% (1,368)
-2.3%
On even strength, Lazar has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Lazar is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (857).
Lazar shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Home / Away
Lazar
Stepan
Home
50.1% (1,542)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
48.2% (1,596)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Lazar
Stepan
P1
48.9%
47.5%
P2
48.9%
45.6%
P3
49.5%
46.8%
OT
56.5%
40.7%
Final 5 min
49.9%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
49.1%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2023 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 15, 2023 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 15, 2023 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 15, 2023 | 1 | 02:25 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 10:59 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 02:55 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 2 | 05:06 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Nov 27, 2016 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 27, 2016 | 2 | 03:18 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 24, 2016 | 2 | 12:03 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |