Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Lazar wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Tavares 57.2% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 81.2%
Defensive zone
Lazar 82.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 55.6%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Lazar
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Lazar
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lazar
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lazar
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
63.8% (174)
58.0% (914)
+5.8%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
57.0% (235)
-57.0%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
57.9% (19)
-1.6%
On power play, Tavares has a +57.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lazar is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Lazar shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Lazar
Tavares
Home
63.3% (128)
57.8% (614)
Away
59.3% (118)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Lazar
Tavares
P1
64.6%
58.0%
P2
60.5%
56.9%
P3
59.0%
58.4%
Final 5 min
68.4%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
61.4%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:00 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 05:55 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |