Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.3% vs 52.1%). Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Lazar wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.0% vs Hayes 51.7% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 70.6%
Defensive zone
Lazar 69.6%
Neutral zone
Hayes 60.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Lazar
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Lazar
Hayes
Last 8: Lazar 3-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Lazar
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
0
Lazar
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
5
Lazar
Hayes
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (356)
51.6% (386)
-0.2%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
53.2% (47)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
60.0% (20)
-12.8%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Lazar is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Lazar shoots right. Hayes is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Home / Away
Lazar
Hayes
Home
49.7% (163)
50.5% (200)
Away
52.3% (237)
53.4% (253)
By Period
Lazar
Hayes
P1
46.9%
58.8%
P2
53.3%
49.3%
P3
53.3%
48.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 19:05 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 02:22 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 02:32 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 02:25 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 15:51 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:34 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 08:45 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |