Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.2% vs Barzal 42.2% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lazar 53.0%
Defensive zone
Lazar 89.9%
Neutral zone
Lazar 84.5%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 87.2%
87.2%
12.8%
Lazar
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Lazar
Barzal
Last 6: Lazar 4-2 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
Barzal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (2,658)
41.9% (3,565)
+8.3%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
43.4% (205)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (415)
42.3% (26)
-0.4%
On power play, Lazar has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Lazar is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (857).
Lazar shoots right. Barzal is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,097).
Home / Away
Lazar
Barzal
Home
50.1% (1,542)
43.1% (1,895)
Away
48.2% (1,596)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Lazar
Barzal
P1
48.9%
40.7%
P2
48.9%
44.4%
P3
49.5%
41.0%
OT
56.5%
27.6%
Final 5 min
49.9%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
49.1%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 08:45 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |