Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Lazar wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Frost 55.7% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 86.7%
Defensive zone
Lazar 83.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 50.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Lazar
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Lazar
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Lazar
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
63.8% (174)
54.9% (701)
+8.9%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
60.8% (166)
-60.8%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
100.0% (5)
-43.7%
On power play, Frost has a +60.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Lazar is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Lazar shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Lazar
Frost
Home
63.3% (128)
56.0% (443)
Away
59.3% (118)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Lazar
Frost
P1
64.6%
58.9%
P2
60.5%
55.3%
P3
59.0%
54.0%
Final 5 min
68.4%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
61.4%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:30 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:26 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |