Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Lazar wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Stamkos 54.6% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 86.5%
Defensive zone
Lazar 75.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 55.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 86.5%
13.5%
86.5%
Lazar
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Lazar
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Lazar
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
63.8% (174)
56.1% (342)
+7.7%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
53.3% (92)
-53.3%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
62.5% (8)
-6.2%
On power play, Stamkos has a +53.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lazar is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Lazar shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Lazar
Stamkos
Home
63.3% (128)
53.4% (208)
Away
59.3% (118)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Lazar
Stamkos
P1
64.6%
55.6%
P2
60.5%
52.8%
P3
59.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
68.4%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
61.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |