Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.1% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 81.2%
Defensive zone
Lazar 69.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 55.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Lazar
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Lazar
Stamkos
Last 7: Lazar 6-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
0
Lazar
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (242)
55.3% (628)
-2.4%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
55.1% (216)
+44.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (27)
40.2% (87)
-6.9%
On power play, Lazar has a +44.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lazar is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (70).
Lazar shoots right. Stamkos is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Lazar
Stamkos
Home
57.1% (119)
55.5% (499)
Away
47.1% (153)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Lazar
Stamkos
P1
53.1%
50.7%
P2
52.2%
53.8%
P3
48.8%
55.9%
Final 5 min
42.0%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 11:43 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 11:25 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |