Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 53.4%). Look for Helm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Helm 52.4% vs O'Reilly 53.2% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 61.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 62.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Helm
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Helm
O'Reilly
Last 6: Helm 4-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Helm
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Helm
2
1
Helm
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Helm
1
0
Helm
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Helm
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (330)
52.7% (900)
+2.5%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
55.6% (225)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
41.1% (73)
54.5% (209)
-13.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Helm is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (278).
Helm shoots left. O'Reilly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Home / Away
Helm
O'Reilly
Home
53.3% (214)
55.1% (693)
Away
52.7% (207)
51.6% (641)
By Period
Helm
O'Reilly
P1
52.5%
51.5%
P2
57.6%
54.7%
P3
47.7%
52.7%
OT
75.0%
69.7%
Final 5 min
54.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Helm
34.0%▼
44.5%
53.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2015 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2014 | 3 | 15:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2014 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Darren Helm |
| Dec 21, 2014 | 2 | 01:13 | Defensive | Darren Helm |
| Dec 21, 2014 | 2 | 01:06 | Offensive | Darren Helm |
| Dec 21, 2014 | 1 | 10:24 | Neutral | Darren Helm |