Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gustafsson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gustafsson 53.1% vs Hayes 56.3% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 64.6%
Defensive zone
Gustafsson 56.6%
Neutral zone
Hayes 66.7%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Gustafsson
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Gustafsson
Hayes
Last 6: Gustafsson 5-1 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gustafsson
4
0
Gustafsson
Hayes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gustafsson
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gustafsson
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (174)
56.6% (724)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (20)
65.7% (35)
-25.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Gustafsson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (109).
Gustafsson shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Home / Away
Gustafsson
Hayes
Home
51.5% (103)
58.0% (405)
Away
58.2% (91)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Gustafsson
Hayes
P1
60.0%
54.7%
P2
58.9%
55.7%
P3
47.4%
60.2%
Final 5 min
57.9%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gustafsson
58.0%▲
50.0%
54.6%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 14:29 | Offensive | David Gustafsson |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | David Gustafsson |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 07:01 | Offensive | David Gustafsson |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 06:58 | Defensive | David Gustafsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 07:33 | Offensive | David Gustafsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 14:01 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |