Scouting Report
Casey Cizikas holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 52.9% vs Mercer 46.3% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 91.6%
Defensive zone
Mercer 52.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 72.9%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 83.7%
16.3%
83.7%
Cizikas
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cizikas
Mercer
Last 5: Cizikas 1-4 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
4
Cizikas
Mercer
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
1
0
Cizikas
Mercer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (525)
43.6% (241)
+10.1%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
50.0% (14)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (120)
70.0% (10)
-18.3%
On power play, Cizikas has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Cizikas is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Cizikas shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Mercer
Home
58.6% (307)
41.7% (120)
Away
48.7% (339)
47.6% (145)
By Period
Cizikas
Mercer
P1
56.7%
44.6%
P2
49.8%
45.4%
P3
53.8%
45.2%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
53.4%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 10:03 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:45 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |