Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Scheifele 49.5% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 59.4%
Defensive zone
Mercer 84.0%
Neutral zone
Mercer 71.7%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Mercer
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Mercer
Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
1
Mercer
Scheifele
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
2
Mercer
Scheifele
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
48.7% (981)
-7.7%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
53.2% (250)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
43.2% (37)
-6.8%
On power play, Scheifele has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Mercer is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Mercer shoots right. Scheifele is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Home / Away
Mercer
Scheifele
Home
45.2% (126)
50.0% (672)
Away
35.1% (111)
48.8% (596)
By Period
Mercer
Scheifele
P1
34.5%
51.4%
P2
43.4%
45.1%
P3
45.8%
51.9%
OT
0.0%
58.3%
Final 5 min
47.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 16:50 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |