Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Ostlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Ostlund 36.5% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 50.3%
Defensive zone
Mercer 51.3%
Neutral zone
Ostlund 52.5%
Result
Noah Ostlund favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Mercer
Ostlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Mercer
Ostlund
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Ostlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Ostlund
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
32.2% (261)
+6.6%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
11.1% (9)
+24.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
33.3% (3)
+16.7%
On power play, Mercer has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostlund shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Ostlund is 35.8% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
Mercer
Ostlund
Home
34.7% (144)
37.3% (142)
Away
43.2% (146)
25.2% (131)
By Period
Mercer
Ostlund
P1
32.7%
34.0%
P2
42.7%
32.6%
P3
42.2%
27.4%
Final 5 min
39.2%
23.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Ostlund
46.0%▲
34.5%
31.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:03 | Neutral | Noah Ostlund |