Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Ostlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Ostlund 36.5% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 51.9%
Defensive zone
Mercer 54.7%
Neutral zone
Ostlund 51.5%
Result
Noah Ostlund favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Mercer
Ostlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Mercer
Ostlund
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Ostlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Ostlund
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
32.5% (283)
+6.6%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
11.1% (9)
+30.0%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
33.3% (3)
+6.7%
On power play, Mercer has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostlund shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Ostlund is 34.8% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Home / Away
Mercer
Ostlund
Home
40.0% (755)
37.0% (154)
Away
38.5% (792)
26.2% (141)
By Period
Mercer
Ostlund
P1
38.2%
34.6%
P2
39.2%
32.0%
P3
41.1%
28.6%
Final 5 min
39.6%
23.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Ostlund
46.0%▲
34.5%
31.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:03 | Neutral | Noah Ostlund |