Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Greig 50.6% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 87.6%
Defensive zone
Greig 50.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 74.3%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Mercer
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Mercer
Greig
Last 5: Mercer 1-4 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
1
4
Mercer
Greig
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
51.5% (336)
-12.7%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
66.7% (24)
-31.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
43.2% (81)
+6.8%
On power play, Greig has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Greig is 57.8% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Mercer
Greig
Home
34.7% (144)
50.2% (247)
Away
43.2% (146)
51.5% (194)
By Period
Mercer
Greig
P1
32.7%
46.9%
P2
42.7%
58.8%
P3
42.2%
48.3%
Final 5 min
39.2%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:11 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |