Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Greig 48.8% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 84.5%
Defensive zone
Greig 54.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 70.1%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Mercer
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Mercer
Greig
Last 7: Mercer 2-5 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
1
4
Mercer
Greig
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
48.5% (1,133)
-9.4%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
56.8% (74)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
46.5% (172)
-6.5%
On power play, Greig has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Greig is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (634).
Home / Away
Mercer
Greig
Home
40.0% (755)
49.8% (681)
Away
38.5% (792)
47.7% (698)
By Period
Mercer
Greig
P1
38.2%
46.3%
P2
39.2%
51.2%
P3
41.1%
48.8%
OT
0.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
39.6%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:11 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 17:28 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 14:47 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |