Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Greig 45.0% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 59.9%
Defensive zone
Greig 65.6%
Neutral zone
Greig 51.3%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Mercer
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Mercer
Greig
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
45.2% (414)
-1.6%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
28.6% (14)
+21.4%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
28.6% (21)
+41.4%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Greig is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (161).
Home / Away
Mercer
Greig
Home
41.7% (120)
46.4% (196)
Away
47.6% (145)
41.9% (253)
By Period
Mercer
Greig
P1
44.6%
40.8%
P2
45.4%
46.4%
P3
45.2%
43.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 17:28 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 14:47 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |