Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 35.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 42.2% vs Gourde 45.6% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 82.8%
Defensive zone
Mercer 53.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 66.2%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Mercer
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Mercer
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Mercer
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Mercer
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (254)
47.1% (463)
-8.1%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
36.4% (11)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (9)
29.9% (67)
+25.7%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Mercer is 35.8% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Mercer shoots right. Gourde is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gourde
Home
34.1% (126)
42.3% (215)
Away
43.8% (144)
46.3% (326)
By Period
Mercer
Gourde
P1
31.3%
44.8%
P2
44.0%
49.1%
P3
43.7%
40.1%
Final 5 min
35.4%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Gourde
50.0%▲
43.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:56 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |