Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Gourde 46.0% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 86.1%
Defensive zone
Mercer 52.7%
Neutral zone
Mercer 72.1%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Mercer
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Mercer
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Mercer
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Mercer
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
47.2% (654)
-8.4%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
45.0% (20)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
32.2% (87)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Gourde is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gourde
Home
34.7% (144)
44.1% (322)
Away
43.2% (146)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Mercer
Gourde
P1
32.7%
42.4%
P2
42.7%
49.8%
P3
42.2%
44.3%
Final 5 min
39.2%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:56 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |