Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 40.0% vs Gourde 48.3% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 76.8%
Defensive zone
Gourde 50.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 63.2%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
Mercer
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Mercer
Gourde
Last 10: Mercer 3-7 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
0
Mercer
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
3
Mercer
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
4
Mercer
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,403)
48.5% (4,763)
-9.4%
Power Play
41.3% (80)
57.5% (367)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (44)
39.9% (534)
+1.0%
On power play, Gourde has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,085).
Mercer shoots right. Gourde is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,873).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gourde
Home
40.0% (737)
49.4% (2,808)
Away
38.6% (790)
47.2% (2,856)
By Period
Mercer
Gourde
P1
38.0%
50.4%
P2
39.3%
47.2%
P3
41.3%
47.2%
OT
0.0%
38.5%
Final 5 min
39.0%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Gourde
50.0%▲
43.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:56 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:28 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 18:45 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 15:19 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 19:32 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 13:15 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 04:25 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |