Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Grant shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.2% vs Grant 52.7% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Grant 68.4%
Defensive zone
Grant 84.2%
Neutral zone
Grant 77.2%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 73.7%
26.3%
73.7%
McDavid
Grant
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McDavid
Grant
Last 6: McDavid 4-2 Grant
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
0
McDavid
Grant
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
0
2
McDavid
Grant
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Grant
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (855)
53.4% (511)
-12.0%
Power Play
47.8% (23)
55.6% (18)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (31)
50.0% (68)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Grant has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Grant shoots left. McDavid is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
McDavid shoots left. Grant is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
McDavid
Grant
Home
42.8% (451)
56.1% (344)
Away
40.0% (458)
49.0% (253)
By Period
McDavid
Grant
P1
38.0%
49.4%
P2
44.9%
56.1%
P3
41.7%
54.0%
OT
20.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.4%
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2018 | 3 | 14:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 3 | 11:28 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 1 | 02:37 | Defensive | Derek Grant |