Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 52.2% vs Duchene 54.1% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 15-13 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 74.3%
Defensive zone
Grant 81.9%
Neutral zone
Grant 55.8%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Grant
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
15
(28 meetings)
13
15
Grant
Duchene
Last 10: Grant 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
6
Grant
Duchene
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
6
4
Grant
Duchene
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
5
Grant
Duchene
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (2,864)
53.9% (10,396)
-0.2%
Power Play
61.7% (175)
56.9% (1,665)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (922)
49.1% (468)
-3.1%
On power play, Grant has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Grant is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,612).
Grant shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Grant
Duchene
Home
54.3% (1,956)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
50.2% (2,005)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Grant
Duchene
P1
51.1%
54.5%
P2
51.5%
54.5%
P3
54.3%
53.4%
OT
35.7%
56.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2023 | 1 | 07:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 3 | 02:53 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 1 | 08:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 3 | 11:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 2 | 16:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 10:05 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 3 | 09:05 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 3 | 04:27 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 3 | 01:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 2 | 10:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 2 | 03:44 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 2 | 01:53 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 1 | 11:59 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 1 | 08:47 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 1 | 04:54 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 08:51 | Defensive | Derek Grant |