Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Grant on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 50.9% vs O'Reilly 58.1% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Grant leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 93.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 56.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 77.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 72.3%
27.7%
72.3%
Grant
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Grant
O'Reilly
Last 10: Grant 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Grant
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
7
1
Grant
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (415)
58.6% (841)
-4.1%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
59.9% (207)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (137)
58.1% (148)
-16.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Grant is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (424).
Grant shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Grant
O'Reilly
Home
51.5% (266)
59.8% (594)
Away
50.7% (300)
57.8% (602)
By Period
Grant
O'Reilly
P1
48.3%
61.7%
P2
52.2%
56.2%
P3
52.8%
59.5%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
51.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 06:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 2 | 02:09 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 3 | 12:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 3 | 08:29 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 2 | 03:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 2 | 01:29 | Defensive | Derek Grant |