Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Grant wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 48.8% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 70.6%
Defensive zone
Grant 63.1%
Neutral zone
Grant 50.3%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Grant
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Grant
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Grant
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (222)
56.6% (1,064)
-7.5%
Power Play
76.5% (17)
60.4% (260)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (181)
54.0% (261)
-8.7%
On power play, Grant has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Grant is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (275).
Grant shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Grant
O'Reilly
Home
49.8% (223)
54.9% (801)
Away
47.2% (197)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Grant
O'Reilly
P1
43.9%
58.0%
P2
49.7%
56.7%
P3
51.4%
55.4%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
51.2%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
48.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 2 | 19:41 | Neutral | Derek Grant |