Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Grant on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 52.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Grant leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 87.4%
Defensive zone
Grant 57.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 64.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 65.7%
34.3%
65.7%
Grant
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
12
(27 meetings)
15
12
Grant
O'Reilly
Last 10: Grant 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
8
Grant
O'Reilly
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
9
1
Grant
O'Reilly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Grant
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (2,864)
56.2% (15,260)
-2.5%
Power Play
61.7% (175)
58.8% (3,445)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (922)
51.4% (2,811)
-5.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Grant is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,612).
Grant shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Grant
O'Reilly
Home
54.3% (1,956)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
50.2% (2,005)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Grant
O'Reilly
P1
51.1%
55.6%
P2
51.5%
57.0%
P3
54.3%
55.1%
OT
35.7%
62.2%
Final 5 min
54.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 2 | 19:41 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 06:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 2 | 02:09 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 3 | 12:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 3 | 08:29 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 2 | 03:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 2 | 01:29 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 19:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 13:15 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 06:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 18:33 | Defensive | Derek Grant |