Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Wennberg on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Wennberg wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.7% vs Ryan 54.6% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 51.8%
Defensive zone
Ryan 86.7%
Neutral zone
Ryan 86.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 65.8%
34.2%
65.8%
Wennberg
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Wennberg
Ryan
Last 5: Wennberg 4-1 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wennberg
3
0
Wennberg
Ryan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Wennberg
Ryan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (879)
60.8% (263)
-12.9%
Power Play
54.0% (124)
100.0% (1)
-46.0%
Penalty Kill
34.6% (185)
46.2% (145)
-11.6%
On power play, Ryan has a +46.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Wennberg is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Wennberg shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Ryan
Home
48.6% (629)
56.7% (201)
Away
44.0% (559)
54.8% (208)
By Period
Wennberg
Ryan
P1
48.3%
56.7%
P2
48.7%
56.8%
P3
42.6%
53.7%
Final 5 min
45.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
50.0%▼
51.5%
46.5%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 18:06 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 01:27 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |