Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Dvorak wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.7% vs Ryan 57.2% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 64.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 52.9%
Neutral zone
Ryan 51.7%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Dvorak
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dvorak
Ryan
Last 6: Dvorak 3-3 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
2
Dvorak
Ryan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
1
Dvorak
Ryan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
56.7% (203)
59.1% (594)
-2.4%
Power Play
50.0% (20)
49.1% (55)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
57.9% (107)
-57.9%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +57.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Dvorak is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (63).
Dvorak shoots left. Ryan is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (544).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Ryan
Home
56.5% (138)
57.0% (398)
Away
53.4% (88)
59.5% (358)
By Period
Dvorak
Ryan
P1
56.5%
56.2%
P2
57.6%
56.9%
P3
52.1%
61.1%
Final 5 min
55.8%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 16:29 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 12:34 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 01:40 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 12:18 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 02:44 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |