Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Carter 53.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 20-8 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 56.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 54.8%
Neutral zone
Carter 54.8%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Ryan
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
20
(28 meetings)
8
20
Ryan
Carter
Last 10: Ryan 2-8 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
11
Ryan
Carter
13 total
Defensive Zone
Even
5
5
Ryan
Carter
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
4
Ryan
Carter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
53.3% (8,728)
+3.3%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
57.3% (1,554)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
46.3% (1,087)
+1.5%
On power play, Carter has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Home / Away
Ryan
Carter
Home
56.2% (2,559)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
Ryan
Carter
P1
55.1%
53.6%
P2
54.7%
52.8%
P3
56.0%
53.1%
OT
58.3%
56.5%
Final 5 min
52.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:39 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 01:57 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 01:05 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 01:06 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 11:09 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 1 | 13:33 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 12, 2020 | 2 | 06:23 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 14:33 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 3 | 09:29 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 1 | 18:32 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 1, 2019 | 3 | 11:47 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 1, 2019 | 3 | 00:13 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 1, 2019 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 1, 2019 | 2 | 04:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 30, 2018 | 3 | 12:31 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |