Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Ryan wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 52.0% vs Carter 51.1% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 50.4%
Defensive zone
Carter 50.7%
Neutral zone
Ryan 51.2%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Ryan
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Ryan
Carter
Last 7: Ryan 2-5 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
5
Ryan
Carter
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Carter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (603)
52.2% (552)
+1.9%
Power Play
40.9% (44)
56.4% (94)
-15.5%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (85)
41.0% (100)
+4.9%
On power play, Carter has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Ryan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Ryan shoots right. Carter is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
Ryan
Carter
Home
52.5% (341)
51.2% (324)
Away
52.2% (391)
51.2% (422)
By Period
Ryan
Carter
P1
56.0%
49.8%
P2
48.1%
52.8%
P3
52.8%
51.2%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
52.3%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2020 | 2 | 06:23 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 14:33 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 3 | 09:29 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 1 | 18:32 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |