Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Norris 52.1% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 60.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 75.2%
Neutral zone
Ryan 72.5%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 71.5%
71.5%
28.5%
Ryan
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
Ryan
Norris
Last 10: Ryan 6-4 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
0
4
Ryan
Norris
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
9
1
Ryan
Norris
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
3
4
Ryan
Norris
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
52.5% (3,057)
+4.1%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
53.7% (404)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
45.4% (240)
+2.4%
On even strength, Ryan has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Norris is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,309).
Home / Away
Ryan
Norris
Home
56.2% (2,559)
53.1% (1,856)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
51.2% (1,845)
By Period
Ryan
Norris
P1
55.1%
55.6%
P2
54.7%
51.4%
P3
56.0%
50.1%
OT
58.3%
40.5%
Final 5 min
52.5%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 05:12 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 05:20 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 15:40 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 06:38 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:17 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:08 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 14:24 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:12 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| May 9, 2021 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| May 9, 2021 | 2 | 13:53 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| May 9, 2021 | 1 | 19:09 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 3 | 10:47 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 1 | 09:50 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 1 | 07:14 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |