Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Dowling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Dowling 50.7% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 58.6%
Defensive zone
Ryan 86.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 70.0%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Ryan
Dowling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Ryan
Dowling
Last 5: Ryan 3-2 Dowling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
0
2
Ryan
Dowling
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Dowling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Dowling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Dowling
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
53.3% (30)
+6.9%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
50.0% (10)
-21.4%
On power play, Dowling has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowling shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (370).
Ryan shoots right. Dowling is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (18).
Home / Away
Ryan
Dowling
Home
56.7% (254)
41.7% (12)
Away
55.0% (258)
57.1% (28)
By Period
Ryan
Dowling
P1
56.9%
42.9%
P2
51.7%
60.0%
P3
59.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
72.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 02:58 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 1 | 13:01 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 3 | 07:39 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 3 | 07:35 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |