Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Suzuki on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 63.2% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Suzuki 52.4% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 83.3%
Defensive zone
Ryan 78.9%
Neutral zone
Ryan 50.5%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Ryan
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Ryan
Suzuki
Last 7: Ryan 2-5 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
3
Ryan
Suzuki
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Suzuki
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Suzuki
1
2
Ryan
Suzuki
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
51.3% (1,096)
+9.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
59.9% (157)
+40.1%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
56.9% (58)
-10.7%
On power play, Ryan has a +40.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Ryan is 63.2% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Ryan shoots right. Suzuki is 58.9% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Ryan
Suzuki
Home
56.7% (201)
54.2% (638)
Away
54.8% (208)
51.0% (673)
By Period
Ryan
Suzuki
P1
56.7%
51.5%
P2
56.8%
53.3%
P3
53.7%
52.4%
Final 5 min
56.1%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:42 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 02:29 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 10:34 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |